>> it's critical to mitt romney. he really does have to show his stuff there, and he has to-- he has to change his emage. he has the image of a kru club republican. he has to go after president obama in a coherent way with a real message. but, you know, history tells me, bob, that generally speaking, the challenger does gain from the first debate. it will be a surprise if he doesn't gain. and he very much needs to. he needs to get some momentum. based on history, i would say the odds favor mitt romney in the first debate. >> schieffer: let me ask you about your home state, virginia. your center is headquartered at u.v.a. what's happening there? is this going to come down to virginia? a lot of people think it might. >> well, it could. obviously, it would have to be very close to come down to virginia with 13 electoral vote. i'll tell you, it's caused me to question some of the polls because based on everything i know about verg, everything i've seen, i think the real margin is actually quite close. i would give presid